The future of the multinational energy mix

The International Energy Agency (IEA) in its World Energy Outlook annual report presents a set of scenarios exploring different futures, measures – or the absence of measures – which make them possible and the interconnections between components of the system.
The “current policies” scenario illustrates what happens if the world continues its current trajectory without the adoption of additional measures. In this scenario, energy demand will grow by 1.3% per year until 2040, and the boom in demand of energy services won’t be limited by any additional effort to improve energy efficiency. If this figure is much lower than the notable growth of 2.3% recorded in 2018, the result will nonetheless be steadily increasing energy-related emissions, as well as increased pressure on most aspects of energy security.
The “stated policies” scenario goes further and integrates the intentions and objectives confirmed by policies. This scenario was renamed in order to emphasize that it only takes into account political initiatives already announced and accompanied by specific programmes. The objective is to present a mirror to the strategies of political decision makers and to illustrate the consequences, not to guess how political priorities will evolve in the future.
In the “stated policies” scenario, energy demand grows by 1% per year until 2040. Low-carbon energy sources, primarily solar photovoltaic (PV), respond to more than half of this growth and natural gas, stimulated by the growth in LNG trade, represents a third. Oil demand plateaus in the 2030s and coal consumption decreases slightly.
Certain energy sectors, in particular the electricity sector, are undergoing rapid transformation. Several countries, especially those aspiring to carbon neutrality, are carrying out a significant overhaul of their supply and consumption. However, the development of low-carbon technologies is not enough to offset the effects of global economic and demographic growth. Although the increase in emissions slows down in this scenario, in the absence of a peak before 2040, common sustainable development goals remain out of reach.
The “sustainable development” scenario proposes a trajectory allowing achievement of the sustainable development objectives relating to energy, which requires profound and rapid changes at all levels of the energy system. This scenario defines a trajectory perfectly in accordance with the Paris Agreement by containing the elevation in global temperatures well below 2 degrees Celsius and continuing the action conducted to limit them to 1.5 degrees Celsius. It also meets the objectives of universal access to energy and improving air quality.