Designing a credible decarbonisation pathway for Oman

Oman

Mohsin Al Jabri, director-general of Oman Net Zero Centre (ONZC), talks to The Energy Year about the centre’s role in designing Oman’s path to net-zero emissions and its major achievements in the oversight and certification of GHG-abatement projects. ONZC is responsible for defining the objectives of Oman’s national net-zero strategy.

What is Oman Net Zero Centre’s core mandate?
The Oman Net Zero Centre was established in December 2024, following the government’s landmark decision to set 2050 as the target year for achieving carbon neutrality. This commitment emerged from extensive technical and strategic deliberations, and the centre has since been entrusted with co-ordinating and driving the nation’s collective efforts toward this ambitious goal.
Oman’s economy has long been anchored in hydrocarbons, with oil and gas contributing heavily to the national GDP. From the outset, it was clear that any credible decarbonisation pathway would need to strike a delicate balance among reducing emissions decisively, safeguarding business competitiveness and ensuring that the energy transition delivers tangible social and economic benefits to the Omani people.
One of the centre’s earliest and most significant achievements has been the establishment of a national GHG system to record, monitor and report emissions across the country. Built on internationally recognised IPCC [Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change] methodologies, it provides a unified framework that ensures accuracy, transparency and comparability across all emitting sectors.
The platform is structured around three core models. The first is a situational awareness model that enables users to input raw data, which is then automatically converted into emissions estimates using IPCC equations. Its dashboard is fully modular, allowing ONZC to add new equations on demand or adapt it to emerging industries in Oman’s economy.
The second is a forecasting model that offers a forward-looking view. Drawing on the data captured in the first model, it projects future emissions while accounting for the impact of planned projects that could either increase or reduce emissions.
The third is the carbon registry model, distinctive in both purpose and design. It aims to digitalise the entire carbon credit registration process, giving users the flexibility to view and manage credits available for trade within the country.
Together, these models provide a modular and adaptive platform that ONZC considers the cornerstone for tracking decarbonisation efforts across sectors and companies, while laying the foundation for a transparent and efficient carbon market in Oman.

What targets have you set for this phase of decarbonisation?
Oman’s net-zero strategy is tiered, starting with low-hanging fruit that is simple, cost-effective and ready for immediate implementation with a positive NPV [net present value]. This includes expanding renewable energy use, executing energy-efficiency projects for government buildings and piloting biodiesel.
For instance, we’ve launched an energy-efficiency programme with ESCO Industries for 13 government buildings. The project requires a capital expenditure of OMR 1.7 million [USD 4.1 million], and it targets savings of 25% in electricity and water and 7,000 tonnes of CO2, for around OMR 460,000 [USD 1.19 million]. This project is now at the award stage, and a 10-year contract is scheduled to be signed
Higher-cost decarbonisation levers, such as CCUS, hydrogen and grid electrification, require preferential financing to ensure viability. Instruments such as the Green Climate Fund provide very attractive terms, including low cost of capital, thereby enabling wider adoption.
If capital remains inaccessible, Oman will activate a third lever: a national carbon market, regulated by ONZC, to support certification and trading mechanisms. Governance protocols are being instituted to maximise impact and ensure inter-agency alignment.
Projects will be categorised by CO2 reduction potential. Category A represents the highest impact, while Category D represents the lowest. This classification scheme will be made public along with all project information, excluding the identities of the project owners, to ensure transparency and foster external trust.

How is Oman progressing towards its 2030 climate goals?
Oman’s 2030 climate targets are structured around a certain percentage of committed reductions and conditional reductions in CO2 emissions. Both are measured against a business-as-usual scenario.
Until recently, progress on projects aligned with the conditional pathway was fragmented and not centrally tracked. The establishment of ONZC has brought greater coherence, consolidating a portfolio of more than 100 projects under systematic oversight. This allows for a clear assessment of which initiatives are NPV-positive and therefore able to migrate into the committed track, and which require external support, making them candidates for the conditional target.
Once this mapping exercise is complete, attention will turn to mobilising low-cost capital and forging international partnerships to secure the viability of conditional projects. In doing so, Oman aims not only to deliver on its national climate pledges but also to position itself as a credible and proactive contributor to the global transition toward a low-carbon future.

What initiatives does ONZC have in certification?
Certification is a core element of our five‑year plan. Our priority is establishing a robust CO2 certification framework that enables industries to transact verified emissions reductions domestically and internationally, unlocking finance tied to verified reductions and enabling access to international markets.
ONZC is preparing to lead in certification by establishing a standalone, internationally aligned framework for Energy Attribute Certificates and Low-Carbon Product Certification, acting as the sole authority with dedicated issuance, verification and registry functions. ONZC will co-ordinate with relevant authorities to ensure environmental integrity and global credibility.
Building on Oman’s prior experience with I-RECs [International Renewable Energy Certificates], ONZC will evaluate whether to continue or transition to European-style guarantees of origin based on market access, verification alignment and regulatory compatibility. These measures position Oman to issue high-integrity certificates, prevent double claiming, expand low-carbon exports and attract international investments while contributing meaningfully to global decarbonisation.

What is the most critical barrier Oman’s energy transition will need to overcome?
One of the central challenges in Oman’s energy transition lies in the electricity grid. For decades, power generation has relied on coastal gas-fired plants, but that model is being reshaped. With new solar and wind projects emerging in remote desert regions, the question now is how to reliably deliver this electricity across long distances to homes, businesses and industries.
An expanded and modernised grid is essential for this shift to succeed. Recognising this, the government has launched a comprehensive grid evaluation and is taking steps to strengthen the system. ONZC will play an active role in reviewing these efforts and supporting their implementation.
Equally important are the financial aspects, particularly the discussion around wheeling fees, which will play a vital role in enabling electricity transmission.
This is why attracting affordable capital for grid investment is so critical. Grid expansion is not only a technical requirement; it is also a financial and policy priority. The long-term success of electrification and large-scale renewables will depend on getting this balance right.

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