S&P: Copper demand to jump 50% by 2040 as AI reshapes energy use

NEW YORK CITY, January 8, 2026 – Global copper demand is set to soar by 50% by 2040, with artificial intelligence emerging as a major new driver alongside energy transition and industrial growth, S&P Global said in a report released on Thursday.

In its Copper in the Age of AI report, S&P Global forecasts that copper consumption will rise from 28 million tonnes in 2025 to 42 million tonnes in 2040, fuelled by the rapid growth of power-intensive data centres and the electrification of infrastructure. AI infrastructure alone could add 2 million tonnes of demand over the period. Data centres may account for 14% of US power demand by 2030, further straining electricity networks and increasing the call on copper.

The report warns that without major investment in new mines and processing capacity, global supply could fall short by 10 million tonnes by 2040. Mine development timelines now average 17 years due to permitting delays and regulatory challenges. Secondary supply from recycling will not be sufficient to close the gap, even with aggressive collection efforts.

“Copper is now strategically critical not only for energy transition, but also for enabling the digital infrastructure underpinning AI,” S&P Global vice-chairman Daniel Yergin said.

China and Asia-Pacific are projected to account for 60% of global copper demand growth. Other key demand vectors include renewables, electric vehicles, and defence modernisation. A possible fifth vector – humanoid robotics – could emerge later in the decade.

S&P Global is a US-based provider of financial analytics, ratings and market intelligence. Its global energy and mining research arms offer insights across critical minerals, electrification, and digital infrastructure development. The company also provides strategic consulting on metals and mining through its Energy and Market Intelligence division.

Read the full report here

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