OPEC production up in October

VIENNA, November 11, 2016 – OPEC’s oil production jumped in October, the organisation reported on Friday, projecting a higher-than-expected surplus next year and sending jitters through oil markets.

The increase of some 240,000 bopd over September’s output came despite a late-September deal to curb production. The rise is largely attributed to increases by Iraq, Libya and Nigeria. Iraq, whose average October output reportedly went up some 88,300 bopd to 4.56 million bopd, has been seeking an exemption from the deal alongside Libya, Nigeria and Iran.

Iran had also reported an increase of some 210,000 bopd to 3.92 million bopd following the end of sanctions related to its nuclear programme earlier this year, but that number is some 230,000 bopd higher than OPEC’s own estimates, which put Iran’s October production at 3.69 million bopd. Saudi Arabia and Kuwait, two other key OPEC members, had kept their output more or less steady.

The report also suggested that if OPEC keeps output level, next year’s surplus will be higher than previously projected, at some 950,000 bopd. By contrast, September’s report had projected a 2017 surplus of 800,000 bopd, while the IEA’s latest report had suggested it would be at around 500,000 bopd.

OPEC and non-OPEC producers are expected to meet on November 30 to try to hammer out a deal for a production cut that would bring oil prices up.

Read our latest insights on: